习惯它吧

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本文发表于《大众科学》的前博客网络,反映了作者的观点,不一定反映《大众科学》的观点


今天的建议?习惯它吧。

难以忍受的高温天气?热浪卷走通常的风暴系统并使其变得异常猛烈?基础设施投资不足导致从这些风暴中恢复的时间漫长且零散?

是、是、是。还记得我们从小听到大的“88年暴风雪”的故事吗?下一代“天气比我们想象的更强大”的故事将是那些大西洋中部地区的人们本周正在讲述的故事:“停电时你在哪里?”


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至于我,我当时在北卡罗来纳州罗利市的家中闲逛。客人走了,孩子们睡了,突然一阵阵狂风,我们感受到了……某种东西的最末端。某种东西原来是特大雷暴,一种类固醇雷暴。正如 earthsky.org 的报道所说,“该地区正在经历的高于平均水平的气温……充当了该系统的燃料。” 查看该网站上的一些视频,尤其是雷达图。那场风暴以每小时 60 英里的速度横扫东部各州!

风吹倒了我家附近的一棵树,我们街区一片漆黑。午夜时分,我和我睁大眼睛的七岁孩子在黑暗的街道上进行了一次冒险,结果显示变电站没有损坏,相邻的街区都亮着灯,所以我们知道我们的等待不会太长。确实如此。

但并非所有人都如此。截至 6 月 30 日下午 5 点,超过一百五十万人面临着超过 90 华氏度的高温天气,却喝不到冷饮或用不上电风扇,更不用说空调和有线电视了。

高于平均水平的气温?更大更糟糕的风暴?习惯它吧。

至于电网,根据 Venturebeat, “亚马逊 弹性计算云 在北弗吉尼亚州的宕机 [导致] NetflixPinterest、Instagram 和其他服务瘫痪。” 它们很快就恢复了,但这就是现在停电时的样子。第二天我们去看电影,看到门上贴着一张告示,如果剧院遇到他们正在经历的电压降低,我们要保持冷静;他们会尽快恢复电影放映。我们很幸运——《勇敢传说》放映没有中断。你应该去看——真的很好看。

无论如何,电网,以及从风暴中恢复和应对需求激增的能力?糟糕。美国土木工程师学会 (American Society of Civil Engineers) 在其 2009 年报告卡 中给我们的 电力基础设施打了 D+,并且一份 2011 年题为“不作为的后果”的后续报告 列出了袖手旁观、眼睁睁看着东西坏掉的经济后果。如果你认为到 2040 年国内生产总值将损失数万亿美元,到 2020 年将损失超过 50 万个工作岗位,你就对了。再说一遍——这还不是我们在维护和建设基础设施方面落后的数万亿美元——而是因为我们没有基础设施而将无法赚到的钱。明白了吗?不制定计划要付出代价!

你有没有注意到由此产生的消费热潮,投资者和纳税人纷纷排队对输电线路、备用发电、调峰电厂、配电冗余以及将停电限制在尽可能小的区域并将故障信息传递到中央办公室的智能电网技术进行不那么性感的投资?不要感到难过——我也没有注意到。

至于通信,请记住——大多数电力公司获取电线杆倒塌信息的方式是使用训练有素的哺乳动物在停电时按下按钮,当它们按下按钮时,电力公司的办公室里会响起铃声。也就是说,他们会等到你我打电话告诉他们停电了。《城市土地学会的“2012 年基础设施”》也没有描绘出更美好的景象。

所以。飓风季节刚刚开始,海洋正在变暖。雷雨云每天都在变大,而只有那么多辆带黄色旋转灯的卡车。停电时你在哪里?我当时在室内,猛敲我的 VOIP 电话,却无法告诉电力公司我家停电了。幸运的是,手机已充电,信号塔有发电机。

 

Scott Huler was born in 1959 in Cleveland and raised in that city's eastern suburbs. He graduated from Washington University in 1981; he was made a member of Phi Beta Kappa because of the breadth of his studies, and that breadth has been a signature of his writing work. He has written on everything from the death penalty to bikini waxing, from NASCAR racing to the stealth bomber, for such newspapers as the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Los Angeles Times and such magazines as ESPN, Backpacker, and Fortune. His award-winning radio work has been heard on "All Things Considered" and "Day to Day" on National Public Radio and on "Marketplace" and "Splendid Table" on American Public Media. He has been a staff writer for the Philadelphia Daily News and the Raleigh News & Observer and a staff reporter and producer for Nashville Public Radio. He was the founding and managing editor of the Nashville City Paper. He has taught at such colleges as Berry College and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

His books include Defining the Wind, about the Beaufort Scale of wind force, and No-Man's Lands, about retracing the journey of Odysseus.

His most recent book, On the Grid, was his sixth. His work has been included in such compilations as Appalachian Adventure and in such anthologies as Literary Trails of the North Carolina Piedmont, The Appalachian Trail Reader and Speed: Stories of Survival from Behind the Wheel.

For 2014-2015 Scott is a Knight Science Journalism Fellow at MIT, which is funding his work on the Lawson Trek, an effort to retrace the journey of explorer John Lawson through the Carolinas in 1700-1701.

He lives in Raleigh, North Carolina, with his wife, the writer June Spence, and their two sons.

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