价格很重要,请注意

煤炭利用天然气价格上涨的优势,突显了燃料替代的弹性。

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特别是煤炭和天然气之间的相对价格。今天,美国能源信息署(EIA)发布了一份更新报告,称今年前七个月天然气发电量与2012年同期相比下降了14%。另一方面,煤炭发电量增加了约7%。

今年上半年,由于需求增长快于供应(尽管大量产品被燃烧,但这有点难以置信),天然气价格上涨了40-60%。但请记住,2012年也出现了十年来的最低天然气价格。天然气价格现在正在恢复到2009年至2011年期间的水平。

我不认为这预示着煤炭会在任何长期可持续的方式上出现明显的复苏。天然气必须变得非常昂贵,公用事业公司才会考虑建造带有碳捕集技术的燃煤电厂。我认为这更多地突显了该国发电结构中替代的弹性,也就是说,当一种燃料比另一种燃料更昂贵时,就从一种燃料转向另一种燃料。但随着老旧、效率较低的燃煤电厂退役,替代现象将会减少。

David Wogan is an engineer and policy researcher who writes about energy, technology, and policy.

David's academic and professional background includes a unique blend of technology and policy in the field of energy systems. Most recently, David worked at Austin Energy, a Texas municipal utility, implementing a Department of Energy stimulus grant related to energy efficiency. Previously, David was a member of the Energy & Climate Change team at the White House Council on Environmental Quality for the Obama Administration.

David holds two Master's degrees from The University of Texas at Austin in Mechanical Engineering and Public Affairs. While at UT, David was a researcher in the Webber Energy Group, where his research focused on advanced biofuel production to offset petroleum use in the transportation sector. David holds a Bachelor's of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin, where he researched nuclear non-proliferation measurement technology.

David is a 2013 Aspen Institute Journalism Scholar, joining a select group of journalists from Slate, ABC News, and The New York Times.

David lives in Austin, Texas. Follow along on Twitter or email him at david.wogan@me.com.

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