美国东海岸极易遭受飓风洪水侵袭

我们的地图显示了各处地势低洼、面临风险的城市和海岸线,其中许多正在下沉

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飓风华金可能在本周末直扑美国东海岸。到目前为止,模型未能就风暴可能登陆地点达成一致,但从北卡罗来纳州到马萨诸塞州的海岸线都可能成为飓风前方高涨的海水或风暴潮的目标。即使风暴在北大西洋向东偏离,气象预报员称,风暴附近异常大的大气压力梯度也注定会将强风推向陆地数小时,带来长时间的巨浪和暴雨。

无论哪种情况都可能导致洪水,因为沿海许多大城市和珍贵的沙滩都位于海平面以上仅一两米处。下面由大众科学开发的地图显示了一米高(红色)或六米高(黄色)的风暴潮将到达内陆多远。虽然六米的风暴潮很少见,但一到三米在北大西洋飓风中很常见;桑迪飓风带来的最大风暴潮为四到五米高。

点击放大。 地图由XNR Productions/Terra Carta制作。最初为马克·费斯切蒂在2013年6月《大众科学》杂志上发表的“世纪风暴(每两年一次)”一文制作


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地图显示了海平面上升在多年内可能如何影响海岸。但是,相同高度的风暴潮也将到达同样远的内陆。而且它会在一天之内到来。

保护城市之间长段海岸线最实用的方法是每五到十年从近海沉积物中抽取沙子到海滩上,以替换被潮汐、常见风暴和飓风侵蚀的沉积物。然而,尚不清楚是否存在足够多的具有合适粒径的沉积物来维持海滩或沙丘,以供几十年以上的重复重建。而且,正如地图所示,东海岸的大部分地区也在缓慢下沉,随着时间的推移,洪水的可能性越来越大。

Mark Fischetti has been a senior editor at 大众科学 for 17 years and has covered sustainability issues, including climate, weather, environment, energy, food, water, biodiversity, population, and more. He assigns and edits feature articles, commentaries and news by journalists and scientists and also writes in those formats. He edits History, the magazine's department looking at science advances throughout time. He was founding managing editor of two spinoff magazines: 大众科学 Mind and 大众科学 Earth 3.0. His 2001 freelance article for the magazine, "Drowning New Orleans," predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. His video What Happens to Your Body after You Die?, has more than 12 million views on YouTube. Fischetti has written freelance articles for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian, Technology Review, Fast Company, and many others. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti is a former managing editor of IEEE Spectrum Magazine and of Family Business Magazine. He has a physics degree and has twice served as the Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union's Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism, which celebrates a career of outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences. He has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many news radio stations. Follow Fischetti on X (formerly Twitter) @markfischetti

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