海洋变暖没有停顿

科学家而非政客解决了关于一系列有争议的测量

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多项研究已经驳斥了全球变暖存在停顿或间断的观点——即本世纪头十年全球地表温度停止上升的说法。关于“停顿”的争论在2015年6月之前有所缓和,当时美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)在《科学》杂志上发表了一篇论文,称其对1900年代引用的海面温度进行了略微修正。美国国家海洋和大气管理局表示,基于船舶发动机进气口传感器的方法存在缺陷。修正后的方法也意味着2000年代的海面温度略高于报告水平。美国国家海洋和大气管理局调整了这两项记录,从而得出结论,2000年代的全球地表温度确实高于过去几十年。没有停顿。

批评人士攻击美国国家海洋和大气管理局,声称它篡改了数据,以驳回关于停顿的主张。德克萨斯州共和党众议员拉马尔·史密斯对美国国家海洋和大气管理局的科学家展开了国会调查,包括要求他们交出电子邮件,但他们没有这样做。

现在,独立的科学家们已经加入了进来。《科学进展》周三发表的一项研究表明,美国国家海洋和大气管理局所做的调整是合理的。由加州大学伯克利分校的泽克·豪斯法瑟和约克大学的凯文·考坦领导的研究小组分析了来自全球海洋浮标、卫星和机器人传感器的原始数据。他们得出结论,旧方法确实高估了过去的海面温度,但较新的计算低估了2000年代的温度。


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豪斯法瑟和考坦在周三在《大众科学》网站上的客座博客中解释了他们的评论,并说明了为什么此类调查应由独立科学家而非政客进行。豪斯法瑟还在下面一个清晰有趣的视频中介绍了他的团队分析的细节。

豪斯法瑟说:“最重要的是,美国国家海洋和大气管理局做得对。他们没有出于任何政治目的而操纵数据。变暖仍在继续。”

Mark Fischetti has been a senior editor at 大众科学 for 17 years and has covered sustainability issues, including climate, weather, environment, energy, food, water, biodiversity, population, and more. He assigns and edits feature articles, commentaries and news by journalists and scientists and also writes in those formats. He edits History, the magazine's department looking at science advances throughout time. He was founding managing editor of two spinoff magazines: 大众科学 Mind and 大众科学 Earth 3.0. His 2001 freelance article for the magazine, "Drowning New Orleans," predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. His video What Happens to Your Body after You Die?, has more than 12 million views on YouTube. Fischetti has written freelance articles for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian, Technology Review, Fast Company, and many others. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti is a former managing editor of IEEE Spectrum Magazine and of Family Business Magazine. He has a physics degree and has twice served as the Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union's Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism, which celebrates a career of outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences. He has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many news radio stations. Follow Fischetti on X (formerly Twitter) @markfischetti

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