朝鲜是世界上第九个拥有核武器的国家吗?

俄罗斯和美国的核武库远远超过其他国家

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朝鲜领导人金正日的去世引起了国际社会对核武器威胁的关注。据广泛报道,金正日一直在追求核弹头和运载它们的弹道导弹,他主持了两次核弹爆炸试验(经地震仪证实)。朝鲜境外无人知晓这个秘密的极权主义国家是否拥有真正的弹头。而且,没有人完全确定金正日最年轻的儿子和推定继任者金正恩在组建具有竞争力的核武库的目标上持何种立场。

只需要一个核装置和一个疯狂的领导人就可能对全球造成破坏,但美国和世界其他七个国家拥有大量的核弹头。罗伯特·S·诺里斯和汉斯·M·克里斯滕森在华盛顿特区的自然资源保护委员会于2009年底进行的最新统计(pdf)如下。俄罗斯和美国的核储备远远超过其他国家。

  • 俄罗斯—13,000枚核弹头

  • 美国—9,400枚

  • 法国—300枚

  • 中国—240枚

  • 英国—180枚

  • 以色列—80至100枚

  • 巴基斯坦—70至90枚

  • 印度—60至80枚

  • 朝鲜—未知


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诺里斯和克里斯滕森估计,俄罗斯的4850枚弹头处于可操作状态;其余的则已退役或等待根据裁军条约进行拆除。美国约有5200枚弹头被认为是可操作的。在他们的报告中,诺里斯和克里斯滕森指出,“我们不知道关于朝鲜如何将核武器能力武器化的可靠信息。” 他们补充说,美国空军情报部门当时没有表明该国的任何弹道导弹能够携带核弹头。

Mark Fischetti has been a senior editor at 大众科学 for 17 years and has covered sustainability issues, including climate, weather, environment, energy, food, water, biodiversity, population, and more. He assigns and edits feature articles, commentaries and news by journalists and scientists and also writes in those formats. He edits History, the magazine's department looking at science advances throughout time. He was founding managing editor of two spinoff magazines: 大众科学 Mind and 大众科学 Earth 3.0. His 2001 freelance article for the magazine, "Drowning New Orleans," predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. His video What Happens to Your Body after You Die?, has more than 12 million views on YouTube. Fischetti has written freelance articles for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian, Technology Review, Fast Company, and many others. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti is a former managing editor of IEEE Spectrum Magazine and of Family Business Magazine. He has a physics degree and has twice served as the Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union's Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism, which celebrates a career of outstanding reporting on the Earth and space sciences. He has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many news radio stations. Follow Fischetti on X (formerly Twitter) @markfischetti

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